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Josef Baumgartner, Serguei Kaniovski, Hans Pitlik, Margit Schratzenstaller, Moderate Growth with High Unemployment. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2020
WIFO Bulletin, 2015, 20(27), S.303-319
Following a period of sluggish activity from 2012 to 2015 (+0.5 percent p.a.), the Austrian economy is expected to grow moderately at an annual average of 1.5 percent over the next five years. Investment will lack momentum, and the external contribution to GDP growth will be smaller than prior to the financial market crisis and the recession. Private consumption, receiving stimulus from higher disposable income as a result of the income tax reform, is projected to gain 1.3 percent p.a. from 2016 to 2020, after +0.5 percent p.a. between 2011 and 2015. While the pace of economic growth will allow the number of jobs to increase by an average 1 percent p.a. over the forecast horizon, unemployment will nevertheless keep rising until 2018, due to the growth of labour supply (domestic and foreign) outpacing demand. The unemployment rate will peak at 9.9 percent of the dependent labour force (national definition), before abating to 9.4 percent towards the end of the forecast period. Inflation pressure stays low over the medium term, at an annual rate of 1.8 percent, and its differential vis-à-vis the euro area is expected to narrow. On the basis of the underlying assumptions on the profile of the business cycle and the policy settings, a balanced government budget (both in nominal/Maastricht and in structural terms) will only be reached at the end of the projection period.
Online seit: 22.12.2015 0:00
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und europäische Wirtschaftspolitik