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Stephan Schulmeister, Growth Dynamics Exposed to Conflict Between Easy Monetary Conditions and Fiscal Restriction. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy Until 2017
Austrian Economic Quarterly, 2013, 18(1), S.25-40
After a cyclical slowdown in 2012-13, GDP growth in the industrialised economies should pick up to reach an average annual
rate of 2.0 percent over the period from 2012 to 2017. In the USA, the growth momentum will be stronger (2.4 percent p.a.)
than in the EU (1.4 percent) or Japan (1.5 percent). Growth in the euro area will only attain 1.1 percent per year, as many
countries will only gradually rid themselves from the government debt crisis. In the new EU member countries, output growth
will be nearly three times as high (3.2 percent per year). China and India will continue to enjoy the fastest pace of growth,
at 7.9 percent and 7.7 percent p.a., respectively). In the other developing or emerging economies, GDP is expected to expand
by around 4½ percent per year until 2015.
Forschungsbereich:Industrieökonomie, Innovation und internationaler Wettbewerb
Sprache:Englisch