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WIFO Bulletin

WIFO Bulletin

Das WIFO Bulletin ist eine reine Online-Publikation in englischer Sprache mit den Schwerpunkten

  • Prognosen für Österreich und andere Länder,
  • Konjunkturberichterstattung,
  • Analysen zur europäischen Integration.

Zur Verfügung stehen Jahresabonnements und der Download von Einzelartikeln.  Abonnementbestellung

Die Artikel des Vorgängers "Austrian Economic Quarterly" finden Sie hier: Austrian Economic Quarterly

Aktuelle Ausgaben(66 Treffer)

Stefan Schiman, Solid Domestic Demand Set to Last Awhile. Economic Outlook for 2017 and 2018

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(1), S.1-12
   
Domestic demand is rising swiftly, fuelled by the income tax cuts, which should drive purchases of durable consumer goods well until the middle of 2017. Investment in 2016 was largely concentrated on motor cars, benefitting domestic production to a lesser extent. As the effects of the tax reform taper off and inflation picks up, growth is set to lose some momentum, with high unemployment weighing on consumption and foreign demand rising only moderately. In spite of robust employment growth, job creation cannot keep pace with the access of new labour, keeping the jobless rate on the rise.
 
Online seit: 02.02.2017 0:00

Stefan Schiman, Increased Optimism in Financial Markets Following US Elections. Business Cycle Report of December 2016

WIFO Bulletin, 2016, 21(20), S.202-211
   
Following the election of Donald Trump as the next US president, financial markets became more upbeat in their appraisal of the growth outlook for the USA. British value added and especially gross fixed capital formation grew at a robust pace after the Brexit decision. Economic sentiment improved in the euro area and in Austria prior to Italy's constitutional referendum. In Austria, the pace of economic growth in the third quarter somewhat exceeded the euro area average; summer tourism results were extremely good. But due to strong immigration, unemployment remains high (especially in the tourism sector), although it has barely risen further this year owing to accelerated employment growth.
 
Online seit: 26.01.2017 0:00

Josef Baumgartner, Sandra Bilek-Steindl, Serguei Kaniovski, Hans Pitlik, Moderate Economic Growth – Unemployment Remaining High. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy Until 2021

WIFO Bulletin, 2016, 21(19), S.185-201
   
After the sluggish advance of 0.6 percent p.a. between 2012 and 2015, economic growth in Austria is expected to pick up to an annual rate of 1.5 percent over the period from 2017 to 2021. While firms may remain cautious in their investment behaviour and net exports contribute less to GDP growth than before the financial market crisis and the recession 2008-09, higher disposable incomes will push domestic private consumption growth to a rate of 1¼ percent p.a. (2012-2016 +0.3 percent p.a.). The stronger momentum of output growth will allow employment to expand by an average 1 percent p.a.; nevertheless, unemployment will keep rising, as supply of domestic and even more of foreign labour will outpace the creation of new jobs. By 2019-20, the jobless rate should reach a peak of 9.8 percent of the dependent labour force (national definition), before edging down to 9.7 percent by the end of the projection period. Inflation pressure stays low over the medium term, at an expected annual rate of 1¾ percent. The inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area average is expected narrow noticeably. Given the business cycle profile and the economic policy assumptions underlying the projections, a balanced general government budget (headline deficit as well as in structural terms) may only be reached at the end of the forecast horizon. General government debt, as a ratio of nominal GDP, is set to decline from 2015 onwards by around 10 percentage points to 75¼ percent by 2021.
 
Online seit: 22.12.2016 0:00

Sandra Bilek-Steindl, Marginal Improvement in Global Economic Activity. Business Cycle Report of November 2016

WIFO Bulletin, 2016, 21(18), S.178-184
   
The Austrian economy expanded at a robust rate of 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2016, in the context of the slightly improved picture painted by international indicators. Domestic demand remained the main driver of growth, while foreign trade once again had a dampening effect.
 
Online seit: 13.12.2016 0:00

Stefan Schiman, World Economy Expected to be Hardly Affected by UK's Exit from EU. Medium-term Forecast Until 2021

WIFO Bulletin, 2016, 21(17), S.168-177
   
Global economic growth is set to gain only little momentum over the medium term. The US economy should expand at a solid pace, driven by buoyant domestic demand and an increasing labour force. Activity in the euro area will be more subdued, as the institutional shortcomings of Monetary Union undermine business confidence and the active population broadly stagnates. The UK exit from the EU will primarily affect the British economy itself, and to a lesser extent its trading partners. The growth momentum of the emerging markets keeps slackening further. Demand and output in China are slowing down, while Russia and Brazil recover only gradually from the current crisis, given the low raw material prices.
 
Online seit: 13.12.2016 0:00

Werner Hölzl, Thomas Leoni, Unit Labour Cost Position of Austrian Manufacturing Slightly Improved in 2015

WIFO Bulletin, 2016, 21(16), S.156-167
   
Despite moderate economic growth, the international labour cost position of Austrian manufacturing improved with respect to the weighted sum of all trading partners in 2015. This improvement can be mainly attributed to the devaluation of the euro against other currencies. Compared to the EU's trading partners, price competitiveness of Austrian exports declined. In a longer-term perspective, the overall unit labour cost position of Austrian manufacturing has been subject to only moderate fluctuations since 2005, with a slight deterioration since the outbreak of the economic crisis.
 
Online seit: 13.12.2016 0:00

Thomas Url, Private Insurance Sector Showing Weak Dynamics in 2015

WIFO Bulletin, 2016, 21(15), S.146-155
   
The Austrian insurance industry was faced with weak premium growth in 2015 (+0.2 percent). Based on shrinking revenues from life insurance (–1.2 percent) and stable revenues in non-life and accident insurance (0.4 percent), the insurance penetration declined towards 5.1 percent of GDP. The unfavourable development in Austria occurred against a background of slightly improving revenues at the European level. Forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are moderate. At the beginning of 2016 new rules for the computation of minimum capital reserves became effective. The European supervisory authority published a riskless yield curve for the computation of solvency capital which will generate fluctuations in the future minimum capital requirement. The new rules will force insurers to follow a conservative portfolio strategy with low expected returns; they will be subject to a stress test in 2016.
 
Online seit: 13.12.2016 0:00

Klaus S. Friesenbichler, Werner Hölzl (WIFO), Kerstin Hölzl (KMFA), Cash-Flow-to-Sales Ratio Unchanged in 2015. Profitability of Austrian Manufacturing

WIFO Bulletin, 2016, 21(14), S.136-145
   
In 2015, the cash-flow-to-sales ratio of the Austrian manufacturing sector reached an estimated 8.5 percent, a value which is slightly below the previous year's ratio of 8.6 percent. This marginal decrease of the profitability of manufacturing reflects the moderate growth performance of the manufacturing sector, which attained by a mere +1.3 percent in both 2014 and 2015. According to further estimates of a dynamic, panel-econometric model at the industry level, the cash-flow-to-sales ratio in manufacturing continued its sideward movement in 2016.
 
Online seit: 13.12.2016 0:00

Marcus Scheiblecker, First Increase in Private Consumption in Three Years. Economic Outlook for 2016 and 2017

WIFO Bulletin, 2016, 21(13), S.125-135
   
Total production in Austria should grow in real terms by 1.7 percent in 2016, significantly above the pace recorded for the last four years and closing the growth gap vis-à-vis Germany and the euro area average. While the contribution of net trade is dragging down growth this year, domestic demand is rising substantially. Investment is lively and private households, for the first time in three years, are spending in real terms more on consumption. In 2017, stronger exports should offset some slackening in internal demand, keeping real GDP growth at 1.5 percent.
 
Online seit: 19.10.2016 0:00

Marcus Scheiblecker, Global Economic Activity Remains Weak. Business Cycle Report of September 2016

WIFO Bulletin, 2016, 21(12), S.116-124
   
The period of weak growth continues in emerging market economies, and the USA also saw the pace of economic expansion slow in the first half of 2016. In the EU, activity flattened, following the buoyant start early in the year, but remained on a growth path. The Brexit vote in the UK briefly upset financial markets and companies. In Austria, the weakness of global economic activity continues to be a major strain on the export industry, but expanding domestic demand continues to provide a strong stimulus to growth.
 
Online seit: 18.10.2016 0:00

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