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WIFO Bulletin

WIFO Bulletin

Das WIFO Bulletin ist eine reine Online-Publikation in englischer Sprache mit den Schwerpunkten

  • Prognosen für Österreich und andere Länder,
  • Konjunkturberichterstattung,
  • Analysen zur europäischen Integration.

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Die Artikel des Vorgängers "Austrian Economic Quarterly" finden Sie hier: Austrian Economic Quarterly

Aktuelle Ausgaben(71 Treffer)

Sandra Bilek-Steindl, Confidence Indicators Near All-time Highs. Business Cycle Report of May 2017

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(6), S.50-57
A revival in global industrial activity is spreading from East Asia, intensified by the recovery in Russia and Brazil. It noticeably benefits Austrian exports and industrial production. Leading indicators suggest that the positive development will continue. Both national and international sentiment indicators have reached peaks not seen in several years.
Online seit: 13.06.2017 0:00

Josef Baumgartner, Serguei Kaniovski, Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy 2017 to 2021

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(5), S.43-49
Following the rather sluggish economic growth during the last years, demand and output growth in Austria is expected to accelerate in 2017. In the current year, GDP growth should attain 2 percent followed by an annual average 1.7 percent till 2021, which is broadly in line with the euro area average. Stronger activity will allow employment to expand by 1.6 percent in 2017 and by an average 1.3 percent p.a. over the forecast horizon. With labour supply growth temporarily abating, the unemployment rate should stabilise at 8.9 percent of the dependent labour force (national definition). After 2019, the jobless rate is likely to head up again, reaching 9.1 percent by 2021. Consumer price inflation should remain subdued over the entire period, at an annual rate of 1.8 percent, thereby significantly narrowing the inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area. In view of the projected cyclical fluctuations and the underlying policy assumptions, general government finances are projected to balance, both in nominal (Maastricht) and structural terms by the end of the forecast period. General government debt, as percent of nominal GDP, is projected to head down as from 2016, by a total 12 percentage points to below 72 percent by 2021.
Online seit: 13.06.2017 0:00

Christian Glocker, Business Cycle Upswing in Austria. Economic Outlook for 2017 and 2018

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(4), S.29-42
From a rate of growth of 1.5 percent in 2016, demand and output in Austria are expected to accelerate significantly in 2017 and 2018. Leading indicators clearly suggest a further strengthening of business activity. Apart from lively internal demand benefitting from benign labour market conditions, foreign trade will rebound and contribute more strongly to GDP growth than in recent months. In this environment, the Austrian economy is expected to expand by 2.0 percent in the current year and 1.8 percent in 2018.
Online seit: 10.05.2017 0:00

Christian Glocker, Economic Activity Picking Up in Austria, Inflation Accelerating. Business Cycle Report of March 2017

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(3), S.21-28
Austria's GDP increased at a quarterly rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter. Hence the cyclical upswing observed in Austria proceeded. The forces driving the economy are robust and have so far rested on the domestic economy. The picture portrayed by leading indicators is improving further, suggesting that the cyclical upswing will proceed in spring 2017.
Online seit: 10.05.2017 0:00

Christian Glocker, Domestic Demand Drives Economic Upswing in Austria. Business Cycle Report of February 2017

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(2), S.13-20
Austria's real gross domestic product rose by 0.5 percent, quarter on quarter, in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to WIFO's latest Flash Estimate (trend-cycle component). Hence the underlying pace of economic expansion in Austria in the fourth quarter was unchanged from the previous quarter. Domestic demand was the main driver of the expansion, whereas net trade did not contribute significantly to growth. The picture painted by leading indicators is improving further, suggesting that economic activity will accelerate in spring 2017.
Online seit: 08.03.2017 0:00

Stefan Schiman, Solid Domestic Demand Set to Last Awhile. Economic Outlook for 2017 and 2018

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(1), S.1-12
Domestic demand is rising swiftly, fuelled by the income tax cuts, which should drive purchases of durable consumer goods well until the middle of 2017. Investment in 2016 was largely concentrated on motor cars, benefitting domestic production to a lesser extent. As the effects of the tax reform taper off and inflation picks up, growth is set to lose some momentum, with high unemployment weighing on consumption and foreign demand rising only moderately. In spite of robust employment growth, job creation cannot keep pace with the access of new labour, keeping the jobless rate on the rise.
Online seit: 02.02.2017 0:00

Stefan Schiman, Increased Optimism in Financial Markets Following US Elections. Business Cycle Report of December 2016

WIFO Bulletin, 2016, 21(20), S.202-211
Following the election of Donald Trump as the next US president, financial markets became more upbeat in their appraisal of the growth outlook for the USA. British value added and especially gross fixed capital formation grew at a robust pace after the Brexit decision. Economic sentiment improved in the euro area and in Austria prior to Italy's constitutional referendum. In Austria, the pace of economic growth in the third quarter somewhat exceeded the euro area average; summer tourism results were extremely good. But due to strong immigration, unemployment remains high (especially in the tourism sector), although it has barely risen further this year owing to accelerated employment growth.
Online seit: 26.01.2017 0:00

Josef Baumgartner, Sandra Bilek-Steindl, Serguei Kaniovski, Hans Pitlik, Moderate Economic Growth – Unemployment Remaining High. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy Until 2021

WIFO Bulletin, 2016, 21(19), S.185-201
After the sluggish advance of 0.6 percent p.a. between 2012 and 2015, economic growth in Austria is expected to pick up to an annual rate of 1.5 percent over the period from 2017 to 2021. While firms may remain cautious in their investment behaviour and net exports contribute less to GDP growth than before the financial market crisis and the recession 2008-09, higher disposable incomes will push domestic private consumption growth to a rate of 1¼ percent p.a. (2012-2016 +0.3 percent p.a.). The stronger momentum of output growth will allow employment to expand by an average 1 percent p.a.; nevertheless, unemployment will keep rising, as supply of domestic and even more of foreign labour will outpace the creation of new jobs. By 2019-20, the jobless rate should reach a peak of 9.8 percent of the dependent labour force (national definition), before edging down to 9.7 percent by the end of the projection period. Inflation pressure stays low over the medium term, at an expected annual rate of 1¾ percent. The inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area average is expected narrow noticeably. Given the business cycle profile and the economic policy assumptions underlying the projections, a balanced general government budget (headline deficit as well as in structural terms) may only be reached at the end of the forecast horizon. General government debt, as a ratio of nominal GDP, is set to decline from 2015 onwards by around 10 percentage points to 75¼ percent by 2021.
Online seit: 22.12.2016 0:00

Sandra Bilek-Steindl, Marginal Improvement in Global Economic Activity. Business Cycle Report of November 2016

WIFO Bulletin, 2016, 21(18), S.178-184
The Austrian economy expanded at a robust rate of 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2016, in the context of the slightly improved picture painted by international indicators. Domestic demand remained the main driver of growth, while foreign trade once again had a dampening effect.
Online seit: 13.12.2016 0:00

Stefan Schiman, World Economy Expected to be Hardly Affected by UK's Exit from EU. Medium-term Forecast Until 2021

WIFO Bulletin, 2016, 21(17), S.168-177
Global economic growth is set to gain only little momentum over the medium term. The US economy should expand at a solid pace, driven by buoyant domestic demand and an increasing labour force. Activity in the euro area will be more subdued, as the institutional shortcomings of Monetary Union undermine business confidence and the active population broadly stagnates. The UK exit from the EU will primarily affect the British economy itself, and to a lesser extent its trading partners. The growth momentum of the emerging markets keeps slackening further. Demand and output in China are slowing down, while Russia and Brazil recover only gradually from the current crisis, given the low raw material prices.
Online seit: 13.12.2016 0:00

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