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WIFO Bulletin

WIFO Bulletin

Das WIFO Bulletin ist eine reine Online-Publikation in englischer Sprache mit den Schwerpunkten

  • Prognosen für Österreich und andere Länder,
  • Konjunkturberichterstattung,
  • Analysen zur europäischen Integration.

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Die Artikel des Vorgängers "Austrian Economic Quarterly" finden Sie hier: Austrian Economic Quarterly

Aktuelle Ausgaben(75 Treffer)

Marcus Scheiblecker, Austria's Economy Grows Markedly Faster than the Euro Area Average. Business Cycle Report of August 2016

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(10), S.95-103
Economic activity in Austria is gaining further momentum. According to WIFO's latest Business Cycle Survey, business sentiment in some sectors in Austria is at an all-time high. Both manufacturing and construction as well as services companies currently report very buoyant business activity and are optimistic regarding their business outlook. In the second quarter, Austria was among the euro countries with the highest economic growth. Hence, labour market developments remained favourable. The global economy is also strengthening.
Online seit: 08.09.2017 0:00

Stefan Schiman, Strong Stimulus from World Trade Fuelling Economic Activity in Austria. Economic Outlook for 2017 and 2018

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(9), S.82-94
The acceleration of world trade growth originating from East Asia has reached Austria in 2017. In addition, exports benefitted from clearing the investment backlog in East-Central Europe. While the external stimulus may ease somewhat in 2018, private consumption will continue to provide firm support to business activity. In spite of GDP growth projected at a solid 2.4 percent in 2017 (+2.6 percent when adjusted for calendar effects) and 2.0 percent in 2018, unemployment will likely remain rather high, as many vacancies are not filled by domestic jobseekers. The general government deficit narrows markedly in the current year, even if the fiscal stance on the revenue side remains expansionary.
Online seit: 14.07.2017 0:00

Stefan Schiman, Employment Boom Raises Consumer Confidence, Impetus Provided by World Trade Boosts Exports. Business Cycle Report of June 2017

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(8), S.73-81
In the first quarter of 2017, the Austrian economy registered its strongest growth in six years. Private consumption remained a solid pillar of economic activity, while exports benefitted from strong impetus provided by emerging market economies, especially via the tight supply chains with Germany, and by East Central Europe. Unemployment declined as a result of the upswing that set in with the tax reform implemented in 2016, with strong second-round effects creating additional demand; consumer sentiment again caught up with that in Germany. Nevertheless, the labour market is faced with structural problems. The massive increase in labour supply brought about by opening the labour market for citizens from Eastern countries, the ageing of the labour force, and the implementation of pension reform measures contributed to an entrenchment of unemployment.
Online seit: 14.07.2017 0:00

Margit Schratzenstaller, Fiscal Policy Facing Manifold Challenges. Federal Fiscal Framework 2017-2020 and Draft Federal Budget 2017

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(7), S.58-72
Demographic trends, the need for reinforcing expenditure in forward-looking domains, one-off incidents like the tax reform 2015-16, the current wave of refugee immigration, financial support for banks in distress (even if clearly less than in previous years) and – last, but not least – the necessity to unwind the jump in public debt in the wake of the recession 2008-09, pose severe challenges for fiscal policy. The general government deficit (in the Maastricht definition) is expected to abate to 1.2 percent of GDP in 2017, while the structural deficit may edge up to 0.9 percent of GDP. The government debt ratio has turned around in 2016, declining from 83.2 percent of GDP to a projected 76.6 percent by 2020. Subsidies for ailing banks pushed up the debt ratio by 11.3 percent of GDP at the end of 2016.
Online seit: 14.07.2017 0:00

Sandra Bilek-Steindl, Confidence Indicators Near All-time Highs. Business Cycle Report of May 2017

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(6), S.50-57
A revival in global industrial activity is spreading from East Asia, intensified by the recovery in Russia and Brazil. It noticeably benefits Austrian exports and industrial production. Leading indicators suggest that the positive development will continue. Both national and international sentiment indicators have reached peaks not seen in several years.
Online seit: 13.06.2017 0:00

Josef Baumgartner, Serguei Kaniovski, Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy 2017 to 2021

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(5), S.43-49
Following the rather sluggish economic growth during the last years, demand and output growth in Austria is expected to accelerate in 2017. In the current year, GDP growth should attain 2 percent followed by an annual average 1.7 percent till 2021, which is broadly in line with the euro area average. Stronger activity will allow employment to expand by 1.6 percent in 2017 and by an average 1.3 percent p.a. over the forecast horizon. With labour supply growth temporarily abating, the unemployment rate should stabilise at 8.9 percent of the dependent labour force (national definition). After 2019, the jobless rate is likely to head up again, reaching 9.1 percent by 2021. Consumer price inflation should remain subdued over the entire period, at an annual rate of 1.8 percent, thereby significantly narrowing the inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area. In view of the projected cyclical fluctuations and the underlying policy assumptions, general government finances are projected to balance, both in nominal (Maastricht) and structural terms by the end of the forecast period. General government debt, as percent of nominal GDP, is projected to head down as from 2016, by a total 12 percentage points to below 72 percent by 2021.
Online seit: 13.06.2017 0:00

Christian Glocker, Business Cycle Upswing in Austria. Economic Outlook for 2017 and 2018

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(4), S.29-42
From a rate of growth of 1.5 percent in 2016, demand and output in Austria are expected to accelerate significantly in 2017 and 2018. Leading indicators clearly suggest a further strengthening of business activity. Apart from lively internal demand benefitting from benign labour market conditions, foreign trade will rebound and contribute more strongly to GDP growth than in recent months. In this environment, the Austrian economy is expected to expand by 2.0 percent in the current year and 1.8 percent in 2018.
Online seit: 10.05.2017 0:00

Christian Glocker, Economic Activity Picking Up in Austria, Inflation Accelerating. Business Cycle Report of March 2017

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(3), S.21-28
Austria's GDP increased at a quarterly rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter. Hence the cyclical upswing observed in Austria proceeded. The forces driving the economy are robust and have so far rested on the domestic economy. The picture portrayed by leading indicators is improving further, suggesting that the cyclical upswing will proceed in spring 2017.
Online seit: 10.05.2017 0:00

Christian Glocker, Domestic Demand Drives Economic Upswing in Austria. Business Cycle Report of February 2017

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(2), S.13-20
Austria's real gross domestic product rose by 0.5 percent, quarter on quarter, in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to WIFO's latest Flash Estimate (trend-cycle component). Hence the underlying pace of economic expansion in Austria in the fourth quarter was unchanged from the previous quarter. Domestic demand was the main driver of the expansion, whereas net trade did not contribute significantly to growth. The picture painted by leading indicators is improving further, suggesting that economic activity will accelerate in spring 2017.
Online seit: 08.03.2017 0:00

Stefan Schiman, Solid Domestic Demand Set to Last Awhile. Economic Outlook for 2017 and 2018

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(1), S.1-12
Domestic demand is rising swiftly, fuelled by the income tax cuts, which should drive purchases of durable consumer goods well until the middle of 2017. Investment in 2016 was largely concentrated on motor cars, benefitting domestic production to a lesser extent. As the effects of the tax reform taper off and inflation picks up, growth is set to lose some momentum, with high unemployment weighing on consumption and foreign demand rising only moderately. In spite of robust employment growth, job creation cannot keep pace with the access of new labour, keeping the jobless rate on the rise.
Online seit: 02.02.2017 0:00

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