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WIFO publications and research project papers(105 hits)

Harald Oberhofer, Michael Pfaffermayr, Estimating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Brexit. A Panel Data Structural Gravity Model

WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (546), 35 pages
This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2 percent and 45.7 percent (EU's exports to UK by 5.9 percent to 38.2 percent) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UK's real income between 1.4 percent and 5.7 percent under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero.
 
Online since: 19.12.2017 0:00

Elisabeth Christen, Michael Pfaffermayr, Yvonne Wolfmayr, Decomposing Service Exports Adjustments along the Intensive and Extensive Margin at the Firm-Level

WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (537), 37 pages
Using a panel-data set of Austrian service exporting firms this paper examines the determinants of service exports at the firm-destination country level. We implement a random-effects Heckman sample selection firm-level gravity model as well as a fixed effects Poisson model. Expected firm-level service exports are decomposed into the intensive and extensive margins of adjustment as a response to counterfactual changes. We find market demand to be the key determinant. Results also suggest high service export potentials due to regulatory reform in partner countries within the EU. Adjustments at the extensive margin only play a marginal role. Increasing firm size as well as changes in distance related costs are most effective in developing new export relationships in services.
 
Online since: 14.06.2017 0:00

Harald Oberhofer, Christian Glocker, Werner Hölzl, Peter Huber, Serguei Kaniovski, Klaus Nowotny, Michael Pfaffermayr (WIFO), Monique Ebell, Nikolaos Kontogiannis (NIESR, London), Single Market Transmission Mechanisms Before, During and After the 2008-09 Crisis. A Quantitative Assessment

Monographs, July 2016, 227 pages
   
This study analyses the main transmission mechanisms relevant for the absorption and propagation of asymmetries within the EU and EMU, putting a specific focus on Europe's real economy. In particular, the report aims to assess how the economic shock that triggered the financial and economic crisis has been transmitted and at least partially absorbed in the EU's real economy and the EMU member countries, from both a macro- and a microeconomic perspective. From a policy point of view, the results of the current study imply that, on account of the substantial heterogeneity among EU countries found in all parts of the study, "one size fit all" policies are likely to be very ineffective at increasing the resilience of the EU's single market.
 
Commissioned by: European Commission, DG Growth
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London
Online since: 21.11.2016 0:00

Elisabeth Christen, Michael Pfaffermayr, Yvonne Wolfmayr, Internationalisierung von Dienstleistungsunternehmen. Markteintrittsmodus und Beschäftigungseffekte

Reports (work in progress), July 2016
Technologischer Wandel, die weltwirtschaftliche Verflechtung des Handels und Liberalisierungen im Dienstleistungssektor begünstigten die kontinuierliche Ausweitung des grenzüberschreitenden Handels im tertiären Sektor. In drei Beiträgen untersucht die Studie das Internationalisierungsverhalten von Dienstleistungsunternehmen und dessen Rückwirkungen auf den heimischen Arbeitsmarkt auf Basis von Unternehmensdaten der OeNB und des Hauptverbandes der österreichischen Sozialversicherungsträger. Wie die Analyse der Bestimmungsfaktoren für die Entscheidung von Unternehmen zur Erschließung ausländischer Märkte über Exporte oder Tochterunternehmen (ausländische Direktinvestitionen) zeigt, engagieren sich produktivere Dienstleistungsunternehmen tendenziell stärker im Export. Die Dienstleistungserbringung vor Ort erfolgt verstärkt in schwächer entwickelten Zielländern, während Handelsrestriktionen und Distanz den Dienstleistungsexport deutlicher hemmen. Steigender Importdruck in einzelnen Dienstleistungsbranchen wirkt sich, so zeigt die Analyse der Beschäftigungsentwicklung in Österreich, negativ auf das Unternehmenswachstum aus und erhöht die Austrittswahrscheinlichkeit von Unternehmen signifikant. Diese Effekte sind stärker, je unproduktiver die Unternehmen und je höher der Wettbewerb aus den ostmitteleuropäischen Ländern sind. Ein wesentlicher Teil des Gesamtbeschäftigungseffektes ist dabei auf den Austritt von Unternehmen zurückzuführen. Wie die Untersuchung der durch internationalen Wettbewerb ausgelösten Beschäftigungsströme in und aus der Arbeitslosigkeit bzw. zwischen Wirtschaftssektoren zeigt, erhöht stärkerer Importdruck die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Arbeitsplatzverlustes. Beschäftigungsströme zwischen Sektoren sind quantitativ gering und vor allem nur in den unternehmensbezogenen Dienstleistungssektoren zu beobachten.
Endbericht zum Jubiläumsfondsprojekt Nr. 15491 (Projektleitung: Michael Pfaffermayr)
 
Supported by: Anniversary Fund of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research

Elisabeth Christen, Alexander Hudetz, Jürgen Janger, Harald Oberhofer, Michael Pfaffermayr, Peter Reschenhofer, Gerhard Schwarz, Gerhard Streicher (WIFO), Klemens Hans, Alexander Kohl, Robert König, Andreas Morawetz (CONSULTING AG), Evaluierung "go international". Executive Summary

Monographs, January 2015, 11 pages
Seit 2003 werden die Internationalisierungsvorhaben österreichischer Unternehmen mit dem Förderpaket "go international" unterstützt. Ziele der Evaluierung sind die Bewertung des Förderpaketes auf Maßnahmenebene, ein internationaler Vergleich, die Rolle von "go international" im Leistungsspektrum der österreichischen Internationalisierungsunterstützung sowie die Beurteilung des volkswirtschaftlichen Nutzens des Förderpaketes. Zentrales Element der Studie ist die WIFO-Unternehmensbefragung. Die breitflächigen Leistungen orientieren sich demnach grundsätzlich an den Bedürfnissen der Unternehmen und decken wesentliche Internationalisierungsbarrieren ab. Der Fokus der Aktivitäten entspricht weitgehend den vorgegebenen Zielen. Der volkswirtschaftliche Nutzen ist, wie die Berechnungen zeigen, positiv. In der Gesamtbetrachtung ist "go international" als volkswirtschaftlich sinnvoll zu erachten, eine Weiterführung wird unter Anregung von Verbesserungen empfohlen.
Bestellungen der vollständigen Fassung bitte an publikationen@wifo.ac.at
 
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – CONSULTING AG
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy

Harald Oberhofer, Michael Pfaffermayr, Two-Part Models for Fractional Responses Defined as Ratios of Integers

WIFO Working Papers, 2014, (472), 26 pages
This paper discusses two alternative two-part models for fractional response variables that are defined as ratios of integers. The first two-part model assumes a Binomial distribution and known group size. It nests the one-part fractional response model proposed by Papke and Wooldridge (1996) and thus, allows to apply Wald, LM and/or LR tests in order to discriminate between the two models. The second model extends the first one by allowing for overdispersion. Monte Carlo studies reveal that, for both models, the proposed tests are equipped with sufficient power and are properly sized. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed two-part models for data on the 401(k) pension plan participation rates used in Papke and Wooldridge (1996).
 
Online since: 17.06.2014 0:00

Michael Pfaffermayr, Johann Scharler, Editorial, in: European Integration: Quo Vadis? Selected Papers from the 2013 Annual Meeting of the Austrian Economic Association

Empirica, 2014, 41(2), pp.127, http://www.springer.com/10663
 

Yvonne Wolfmayr, Elisabeth Christen, Michael Pfaffermayr, Pattern, Determinants and Dynamics of Austrian Service Exports. A Firm-level Analysis

Reports (completed projects), May 2013
Most firm-level research on the characteristics and strategies of globalised firms focuses on manufacturing industries while firm-level evidence on trade in services is still rare and has just recently begun to emerge. This study uses a unique dataset of Austrian service exporting firms over a four-year period to add to this literature. We show that service export participation is very low and highly concentrated among a few firms and that service exporters are on average larger and more productive than non-exporters. We also find that firm productivity increases with the number of export markets served. The detailed analysis on the export premium suggests the self-selection of firms as well as learning effects from exporting for export starters. The dynamic analysis reveals that the rate of export exits is high for export starters in the first year of exporting, especially for firms of small size. Movements into and out of exporting are however less frequent than moving into and out of individual markets. Entry and exit of markets (extensive margin) is an important component of overall export flows, especially for less popular markets, overall, however the intensive margin of trade contributes most. Analysis based on a Heckman sample selection specification including firm characteristics as well as the standard gravity variables on geographical characteristics of destination markets confirms this finding. In particular, distance to the destination market, firm productivity as well as destination market characteristics (market size, policy environment) significantly influence the probability of exporting but even more so the volume of service trade flows. Results from the counterfactual analysis suggest that export market growth and policy reforms produce the relatively strongest impact on the entry into new markets. Hence, this decomposition of overall export growth into contributions attributable to the extensive and intensive margin allows for new insights for economic policy.
 
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry of Economy, Family and Youth
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research

Peter Huber, Harald Oberhofer, Michael Pfaffermayr, Who Creates Jobs? Estimating Job Creation Rates at the Firm Level

WIFO Working Papers, 2012, (435), 27 pages
This paper shows that applying simple employment-weighted OLS estimation to Davis – Haltiwanger – Schuh (1996) firm level job creation rates taking the values 2 and –2 for entering and exiting firms, respectively, provides biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. Consequently, we argue that entries and exits should be analysed separately and propose an alternative, consistent estimation procedure assuming that the size of continuing firms follows a lognormal distribution. A small-scale Monte Carlo analysis confirms the analytical results. Using a sample of Austrian firms, we demonstrate that the impact of small firms on net job creation is substantially underestimated when applying employment-weighted OLS estimation.
 

Michael Pfaffermayr, Matthias Stöckl, Hannes Winner, Capital Structure, Corporate Taxation and Firm Age

WIFO Working Papers, 2012, (424), 32 pages
This paper analyses the relationship between corporate taxation, firm age and debt. We adapt a standard model of capital structure choice under corporate taxation, focusing on the financing and investment decisions a firm is typically faced with. Our model suggests that the debt ratio is positively associated with the corporate tax rate, and negatively with firm age. Further, we predict that the tax-induced advantage of debt is more important for older than for younger firms. To test these hypotheses empirically, we use a cross-section of 405,000 firms from 35 European countries and 126 NACE 3-digit industries. In line with previous research, we find that a firm's debt ratio increases with the corporate tax rate. Further, we observe that older firms exhibit smaller debt ratios than their younger counterparts. Finally, consistent with our theoretical model, we find a positive interaction between corporate taxation and firm age, indicating that the impact of corporate taxation on debt is increasing over a firm's life-time.
 
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