WIFO Working Papers

Discussion papers by WIFO staff, consultants and guests – As of 2006 available online only – Free download

WIFO Working Papers are not peer reviewed and are not necessarily based on a coordinated position of WIFO. The authors were informed about the Guidelines for Good Scientific Practice of the Austrian Agency for Research Integrity (ÖAWI), in particular with regard to the documentation of all elements necessary for the replicability of the results.

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Florian Huber, Philipp Piribauer (WIFO)
A Multi-country Approach to Analysing the Euro Area Output Gap
WIFO Working Papers, 2018, (560), 30 pages
Supported by: Anniversary Fund of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Online since: 13.03.2018 0:00
We develop a multivariate dynamic factor model that exploits euro area country-specific information on output and inflation for estimating an area-wide measure of the output gap. In the proposed multi-country framework we moreover allow for flexible stochastic volatility specifications for both the error variances and the innovations to the latent quantities in order to deal with potential changes in the commonalities of business cycle movements. By tracing the relative importance of the common euro area output gap component as a means to explaining movements in both output and inflation over time, the paper provides valuable insights in the evolution of the degree of synchronicity of the country-specific business cycles. In an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, the paper shows that the proposed approach performs well as compared to other well-known benchmark specifications.
Keywords:European Business Cycles, Dynamic factor model, Forecasting
Research group:Regional Economics and Spatial Analysis
Language:English

Related issues

Completed research studies
Supported by: Anniversary Fund of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Closed: 2018
In this project we aim to develop a flexible dynamic factor model for European regions. Taking a regional stance allows us to gain deep insights on the relationship between individual regions and phenomena like country-specific or global business cycle fluctuations. Our proposed modelling approach allows answering a rich set of possible research questions. For instance, it could provide new insights on how business cycle shocks propagate through Europe. In addition, we aim to provide new evidence on the degree of business cycle synchronisation over time, employing a time-varying parameter framework. Finally, to assess how well our model fits the data we also plan to perform a forecasting exercise where we predict regional output growth in Europe.